With so many types of bets offered by bookmakers, which type of bets should you choose?
First question: Do you choose the pre-game odds or in-game live betting?
Answer:
Always choose in-game live betting. Firstly, by waiting you get your chance for better odds. Statistics show that the first 15 minute of a match has the fewest goals. Secondly, you never know what the condition of the game is like. (if you are watching a live game) Events like key players are missing, tactics used by managers and pitch conditions all may change the outcome of the game.
For example, if Messi is injured during warm-up, this odds will only be reflected in the in-game live betting odds. Real time information is the most important whether in the stock market or betting.
Second Question: Which in-game live betting bets should you choose?
Answer:
Typical choices are 1x2, Asian Handicap and Goals. Of course there are many other type of exotic bets offered by bookmakers. (Like Financial Derivatives, these exotic bets are difficult to predict) We will discuss this exotic bets in the future.
You should always choose GOALS. Why???
Probability when all factors are equal
Explained: A simple calculation shows that we should always eliminate 1x2 as it has the lowest probability of victory.
Goals vs Asian Handicap
Every type of investment or gamble requires a prediction method. For goals, you are predicting whether a game has many goals. For Asian Handicap, you are predicting the outcome of the game and whether the team can outperform the odds set by bookmakers.
Which is more difficult to predict? Predicting results or goals? Results are more difficult than goals.
Here's is an illustration:
Wolves vs Manchester United
If you had flavored Man U to beat Wolves, you would have lost. If you had played goals, you would have won.
Our argument here is although Man U was top of the table and Wolves were bottom of the table, football results are unpredictable. If you flavored Man U to thrash Wolves and you chose goals instead of Handicap, you would have won.
Consider this: A goal is a goal, it cannot be revoked. A lead can be diminished. Arsenal led 4-0 against Newcastle and the end result? 4-4.
Do you believe? Comments?
Typical choices are 1x2, Asian Handicap and Goals. Of course there are many other type of exotic bets offered by bookmakers. (Like Financial Derivatives, these exotic bets are difficult to predict) We will discuss this exotic bets in the future.
You should always choose GOALS. Why???
Probability when all factors are equal
- 1x2: Probability shows that you have only a 33% chance to win.
- Asian Handicap: Probability is 50%
- Goals: Probability is 50%
Explained: A simple calculation shows that we should always eliminate 1x2 as it has the lowest probability of victory.
Goals vs Asian Handicap
Every type of investment or gamble requires a prediction method. For goals, you are predicting whether a game has many goals. For Asian Handicap, you are predicting the outcome of the game and whether the team can outperform the odds set by bookmakers.
Which is more difficult to predict? Predicting results or goals? Results are more difficult than goals.
Here's is an illustration:
Wolves vs Manchester United
If you had flavored Man U to beat Wolves, you would have lost. If you had played goals, you would have won.
Our argument here is although Man U was top of the table and Wolves were bottom of the table, football results are unpredictable. If you flavored Man U to thrash Wolves and you chose goals instead of Handicap, you would have won.
Consider this: A goal is a goal, it cannot be revoked. A lead can be diminished. Arsenal led 4-0 against Newcastle and the end result? 4-4.
Do you believe? Comments?
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