Now looking at the statistics, Chelsea games have more than 2 goals 38% of the time, while Man U games have produced it 73% of the time. Therefore the average risk is 55.5%. Does this mean that it is a 55.5% chance to win 98% returns?
In part 1, we introduced statistics based on historical records, which we also term as static risk. Static means inactive, so static risks are risks that have not taken into consideration of disruptive events.
Disruptive Events
Disruptive events have the power to change outcomes. The concept of disruptive events is a business concept where events can change the direction of a company. For example, creating the I-Pod was a disruptive event that started the success of Apple.
The more disruptive events a soccer game has, the more unpredictable the game is. This is because every disruptive event changes the static risk.
Types of Soccer Disruptive Events:
1. Man U would score 4 goals against Wigan because they choose to attack. However they are unlikely to play the same way against Chelsea.
2. There are 8 quality goal scorers for Chelsea vs Man U. However they are unlikely to play together at the same time.
3. A red card can change the game, and the risk of the game would be unmeasurable using statistics.
4. If either team starts to defend strongly after a 1 goal lead, the static risk increases.
Therefore if you want to consider any game, use this 3 steps:
1) Watch the game and take note of the disruptive events.
2) Readjust the static risk to match these events.
3) Consider whether the risks is worth the returns.
In part 1, we introduced statistics based on historical records, which we also term as static risk. Static means inactive, so static risks are risks that have not taken into consideration of disruptive events.
Disruptive Events
Disruptive events have the power to change outcomes. The concept of disruptive events is a business concept where events can change the direction of a company. For example, creating the I-Pod was a disruptive event that started the success of Apple.
The more disruptive events a soccer game has, the more unpredictable the game is. This is because every disruptive event changes the static risk.
Types of Soccer Disruptive Events:
1. Man U would score 4 goals against Wigan because they choose to attack. However they are unlikely to play the same way against Chelsea.
2. There are 8 quality goal scorers for Chelsea vs Man U. However they are unlikely to play together at the same time.
3. A red card can change the game, and the risk of the game would be unmeasurable using statistics.
4. If either team starts to defend strongly after a 1 goal lead, the static risk increases.
Therefore if you want to consider any game, use this 3 steps:
1) Watch the game and take note of the disruptive events.
2) Readjust the static risk to match these events.
3) Consider whether the risks is worth the returns.
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