Applying the Rules of Value Investing

Here we conclude the rules of value investing for soccer betting.

Rule #1: Only invest in what you can understand
Leagues that you do not understand should never be touched. We have recommended that the Dutch Eredivise and EPL are the best leagues in terms of goal scoring and also have sufficient information available on the teams.

Rule #2: Never put your eggs in one basket
Build a portfolio. Diversify your bets. If you lose just one big bet, you have to gamble to get back to your original position. By diversifying, you lower your risks and increase your margin of safety.

Rule #3: Invest only in undervalued bets of high grade teams
We suggest that you should invest only on high scoring teams at undervalued bets. For example, if a team averages 3 goals per game, odds at 2.75 or lower are undervalued.

Blackpool, WBA, Man United, Arsenal and Blackburn all have averages of 3 goals. However, this is still not good enough. The tables below give a better picture.

Blackpool and Man United are the best teams as they are at 70%. Hypothetically if you had managed to placed on over 2.5 ball every single game, you should have 40% returns. You will still realize that the margin of safety is not high. Nevertheless, you know that these are the best teams to bet on.

Rule #4: Do your quantitative or statistical analysis
Trying to predict results without any hard statistics is suicidal for any type of investment. When you lose, you will have no idea why you lost.

Rule #5: The final rule, the secret of sound investing, we shall reveal in our next post.